REVENUE RECOVERY DATA
The Unsold HVAC Quote: Why 80% of Your Estimates Never Get a Follow-Up
By Charles Ashe
|TL;DR: The average HVAC company closes 30% of estimates on the first visit. Of the remaining 70%, fewer than 20% receive any follow-up. Automated follow-up sequences recover 12 to 18% of unsold estimates. For a company generating 40 estimates per month at $1,200 average, that is $3,360 to $5,040 per month in recovered revenue.
THE DATA
The average HVAC company closes 30% of estimates on the first visit. Of the remaining 70%, fewer than 20% ever receive a single follow-up.
That means the majority of your quoted revenue sits in a CRM going cold with zero outreach. A company quoting $50,000 per month in estimates and closing 30% is leaving $35,000 on the table — and recovering even 10% of that through automated follow-up adds $3,500 per month with almost no additional labor. Data from Hatch across 132,000 campaigns shows best-performing sequences use 7 messages over 5 days and achieve a 60% response rate. Single-message follow-up gets 8%.
78% of customers buy from the first company that follows up — not the first company that responds. Those are two different things. You responded to the lead. You sent a technician. You delivered an estimate. And then you stopped. The customer went home to think about it, and nobody from your company said another word.
Meanwhile, it takes 8 or more touches to engage a decision-maker (Hatch data). Your competitors who automate follow-up are running 5-text, 2-email sequences while your unsold estimates collect dust. The revenue is not lost — it is sitting in your CRM waiting for someone to ask for it.
The Math on Unsold Estimates
How much quoted revenue you are leaving on the table every month.
THE FORMULA
EXAMPLE: 4-TRUCK OPERATION
Estimates
40/mo
Unsold
70%
Recovery
15%
Avg Est.
$2,800
Recovered
$11,760
That is $141,120 per year in revenue that was already quoted and sitting in your CRM.
How many HVAC estimates go unfollowed?
These are not character flaws. They are systems problems.
The dispatcher is too busy
Dispatchers are routing trucks, fielding inbound calls, and managing the board. Following up on yesterday's unsold estimates is important but never urgent — so it never happens. The problem is structural, not personal.
No system exists
There is no trigger, no reminder, no automated workflow. The estimate gets marked 'pending' in the CRM and nobody looks at pending estimates. The data is there. The process is not.
Assumption the customer chose someone else
Technicians assume silence means 'no.' In reality, 70% of unsold estimates are still in decision mode for 7-14 days. The customer is comparing options, talking to a spouse, or just procrastinating. They are waiting for someone to ask.
Fear of being pushy
Nobody wants to be a pest. But follow-up is not pressure — it is service. 'Hey, I wanted to make sure you had everything you needed to make a decision' is helpful, not aggressive. Customers expect it.
CRM has the data but nobody looks at it
ServiceTitan, Housecall Pro, and Jobber all track unsold estimates. The reports exist. But nobody runs them, and even when they do, manually calling through a list of 30 old estimates takes hours that nobody has.
What is the best follow-up sequence for unsold HVAC estimates?
Four automated touches, one human call. The automation handles the grunt work. The CSR steps in only when the lead shows engagement.
Thank you + open the door
Hi [Name], this is [Tech] from [Company]. Thanks for having us out today. If you have any questions about the estimate or want to talk through the options, just reply here. Happy to help.
Estimate summary + financing
Subject: Your [Company] estimate — options and next steps Hi [Name], Thanks again for the opportunity to look at your [system type]. Here is a quick recap: • Option A: [Description] — $[Amount] • Option B: [Description] — $[Amount] We also offer financing through [Partner] — payments as low as $[Amount]/month with approved credit. If you have questions or want to schedule the work, just reply to this email or call us at [Phone]. [Tech Name] [Company]
Check-in
Hi [Name], just checking in on the estimate from [Company]. Still thinking it over? Happy to answer any questions. — [Tech]
CSR call (human)
[CSR calls only leads who opened the email or replied to a text. Script: "Hi [Name], this is [CSR] from [Company]. I saw you received an estimate from [Tech] last week and wanted to see if you had any questions or if there is anything I can help with to move forward."]
Final touch + incentive
Hi [Name], following up one last time from [Company]. We are running a [seasonal] special this month — [discount/offer]. If you would like to lock that in on your estimate, just reply YES and we will get you on the schedule. — [Company]
WHY 5 TOUCHES, NOT 1
Hatch data from 132,000 campaigns: single-message follow-up gets an 8% response rate. Best-performing campaigns use 7 messages (5 texts, 2 emails) over 5 days and achieve 60% response rates — 90% in best-in-class implementations. The sequence above is compressed to 5 touches over 14 days because HVAC estimate decisions typically happen within 2 weeks. More touches is not always better. The right touches at the right intervals is what matters.
Automated vs. Manual Follow-Up
The point is not to replace humans. It is to make sure the first four touches happen at all.
| Manual Follow-Up | Automated + Human | |
|---|---|---|
| Who initiates | CSR (if they remember) | CRM trigger (automatic) |
| Consistency | Varies by day/person | 100% of estimates, every time |
| Typical completion | 1–2 attempts, then stops | Full 5-touch sequence |
| Labor cost | 2–4 hrs/week CSR time | Near-zero (human on touch 5 only) |
| Response rate | 8% (single message) | 60% avg, 90% best-in-class |
| Human involvement | Every touch | Touch 5 only (engaged leads) |
Before and After: What Changes in 48 Hours
Documented results from contractors who implemented automated estimate follow-up.
| Metric | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Follow-up rate on unsold estimates | 0 – 20% | 100% |
| Unsold estimate recovery rate | ~0% | 12 – 18% |
| Monthly recovered revenue | $0 | $3,500 – $8,000+ |
| CSR labor for follow-up | 2 – 4 hrs/week | 30 min/week (phone calls only) |
| Implementation time | — | 48 hours |
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of HVAC estimates go unsold?
The average HVAC company closes approximately 30% of estimates on the first visit, meaning 70% of quoted work goes unsold initially. Close rates vary by job type — emergency repairs close at 50-60%, while system replacements close at 15-25%. The critical issue is not the close rate itself but that fewer than 20% of unsold estimates receive any follow-up at all.
How many follow-ups does it take to close an HVAC estimate?
Data from Hatch across 132,000 campaigns shows it takes 8 or more touches to engage decision-makers. Best-performing campaigns use 7 messages — 5 texts and 2 emails — over 5 days, achieving 60% average response rates and 90% in best-in-class implementations. Single-message follow-up achieves only an 8% response rate. Most HVAC contractors stop at 1 attempt or zero.
What should an HVAC follow-up text say?
An effective follow-up text should be short, personal, and offer value — not apply pressure. Example: "Hi [Name], this is [Tech] from [Company]. Thanks for having us out today. If you have any questions about the estimate, I am happy to walk through the options. Just reply here." Subsequent messages should add new value each time: financing options, seasonal incentives, or a simple check-in.
Can ServiceTitan automate HVAC estimate follow-up?
ServiceTitan has built-in follow-up features, but most contractors never configure or use them effectively. Third-party automation layered on top of ServiceTitan, Housecall Pro, or Jobber can trigger sequences automatically when an estimate is marked unsold, run the full multi-touch sequence without manual intervention, and escalate to a human CSR only when the lead shows engagement. No platform migration required.
How soon should you follow up on an unsold HVAC quote?
The first follow-up should happen the same day as the estimate, within 2 to 4 hours. 78% of customers buy from the first company that follows up — not the first company that responds. Waiting until the next day drops response rates significantly. The optimal cadence: same-day SMS, next-day email, day 4 SMS, day 7 phone call, day 14 final SMS.
Is following up on old HVAC quotes worth it?
Yes, with diminishing returns by age. Quotes under 30 days old recover at 12-18%. Quotes 30 to 90 days old still recover at 5-8%, especially for larger jobs like system replacements where homeowners take longer to decide. Beyond 90 days, the primary value is re-engagement for seasonal maintenance rather than closing the original estimate.
KEY FACTS
- ■70% of HVAC estimates are not closed on the first visit
- ■Fewer than 20% of unsold estimates receive any follow-up
- ■Automated sequences recover 12 to 18% of unsold quotes
- ■Optimal follow-up: same-day thank you, day 3 value add, day 7 check-in, day 14 final offer, day 30 seasonal touch
- ■The best time to send the first follow-up is within 2 hours of the estimate
- ■Follow-up automation layers on top of ServiceTitan, Housecall Pro, and Jobber with no migration required
NEXT STEP
Your revenue leaks have a number.
Find out what yours is.
Ready to find your revenue leaks? Get your $297 HVAC Operations Audit for your Carolina market. 12-page custom analysis delivered in 72 hours.
Book the $297 Audit